Since Trump dropped a tariff bomb on global markets, killing IPO appetite and slashing over $2 trillion from the S&P 500, you’d think risk-taking would go into hibernation. Not quite. Nearly a dozen SPAC sponsors have quietly filed to raise a combined $1.8 billion this month alone. Why? Because when the IPO market dies, the blank-check crowd smells opportunity. Serial sponsors like Harry You and Alec Gores are back at the tablebetting that the IPO drought will force private companies into their arms. EY’s Mark Schwartz put it bluntly: SPACs thrive when traditional exits stall.
Momentum is already building. Ares Acquisition Corp II (NYSE:AACT) just announced a $2.5 billion deal with Kodiak Robotics, a self-driving trucking firm. That same day, shares of former SPAC Webull Corp (NASDAQ:BULL) spiked 500%a reminder that in this corner of the market, anything can happen. With $4.1 billion already raised by SPACs this year, the playbook is back in motion: small-float names, big pops, and sponsors betting the public markets are still hungry for a certain kind of storyone with no better path to listing.
But let’s be clear: this is a buyer’s market. Two-thirds of post-merger SPACs since 2019 are down more than 80%. Most trade below the $10 launch price. Hedge funds are only sticking around for the safety netcash redemption plus interestnot the moonshots. As Columbia’s David Erickson noted, this isn’t a great alternative, it’s the only one left for startups that have outstayed their welcome in the private markets. No bells. No whistles. Just survival.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.