Bitcoin market price movements have historically followed similar patterns leading up to the four-year halving event.
There is usually a mid-cycle top, then a pullback of as much as 30% before the halving and the next bull cycle.
On Jan. 30, crypto analyst “Rekt Capital” said that the pre-halving period where pullbacks tend to occur is ending in two weeks.
“Only two weeks left for any downside before the Pre-Halving rally period begins.”
Time is running out
The Pre-Halving period (orange) where pullbacks tend to occur is ending in two weeks
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) January 29, 2024
Pre-Halving Dip Dwindling
The halving is less than three months away now, and it is predicted to occur around April 22.
A similar pre-halving retrace occurred in early 2020 when BTC was trading at around $9,500. Additionally, that year had the pandemic-induced black swan event in March, which is unlikely to play out in this cycle (unless something cataclysmic occurs in the next couple of months).
Analysts had predicted a correction to between $34,000 and $36,000 as the ETF hype dwindled, but the asset only remained sub-$40K for a few days last week.
The analyst also posted five phases of the Bitcoin halving. These included a pre-halving period of 126 days followed by a 63-day pre-halving rally, then a 77-day pre-halving retrace where we currently are.
A 147-day accumulation period comes around, or after the halving, then there is a parabolic uptrend that can last a year.
There have been many price predictions post-halving, with one of the more recent ones from SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, who said that BTC will reach $170,000.
Meanwhile, Dragonfly managing partner ‘Haseeb’ observed that retail has yet to enter the fray. He based this assumption on Coinbase app popularity which is way down compared to previous cycle highs.
Retail mania is still a ways out.
My favorite metric is Coinbase—its iOS app currently ranks 40th within Finance.
In 2021, it was continuously ranked #1 in Finance, and on several days, was #1 across the entire App Store.
When retail shows up this cycle, I expect fresh ATHs. pic.twitter.com/pw0L8Xr3DJ
— Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) January 30, 2024
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin prices are up 3% on the day at $43,422 at the time of writing. The asset hit an intraday high of $43,730 during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session.
Moreover, Bitcoin has made 9% since its post-ETF launch dip below $39K, and it is now eyeing resistance just over $44,000.