Mortgage Rates Fall; in Line with Welcomed Cooling Consumer Prices, Jobs Numbers

Following the first dip in consumer prices in four years and home prices in some markets declining, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage followed suit, dropping from 6.95% last week to 6.89% this week, according to the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), released by Freddie Mac Thursday. 

A look at this week’s numbers: 

  • The 30-year FRM averaged 6.89% as of July 11, 2024, down from last week when it averaged 6.95%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.96%.
  • The 15-year FRM averaged 6.17%, down from last week when it averaged 6.25%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.30%.

What the experts are saying:

“Following June’s jobs report, which showed a cooling labor market, the 10-year Treasury yield decreased this week and mortgage rates followed suit,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “We’re also seeing more inventory on the market, including a fair number of listings with price cuts, which is an encouraging sign for prospective buyers.” Senior Economist Ralph Mclaughlin, added, “Friday’s jobs report and (yesterday’s) CPI report were both solid readings that suggest inflation is being tamed vis-a-vis moderating employment growth, rising unemployment, and cooling prices. This has led investors to believe we’ll get a rate cut by the end of the year, and has helped drive down the 10-year treasury today to lows not seen since March. Although volatile, we should see 10-year treasury rates continue on a downward trend and, as a result, a slow decline in mortgage rates throughout the rest of the year.

“The downward trend will certainly be welcomed news to homebuyers, who have been stymied by high rates and low inventory. But the news certainly gets more promising, as … inventory is now on a strong upward trend, with active listings up by over 36% since the same time last year. Rising inventory should help keep a check on price growth, and falling mortgage rates should help lower monthly mortgage payment for new borrowers. That said, we don’t expect change to rapidly, but rather more gradually by the end of this year and into next.”

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